Expert: Abrams has a lot of work to do to defeat GOP candidate for governor

ATLANTA — Stacey Abrams is already making national headlines as the first African-American female nominee for governor in any U.S. state, but can a Democrat win a statewide election in a decidedly conservative state?

Some political experts told Channel 2 political reporter Richard Elliot that they think Abrams can, but added it won't be easy.

Abrams will have to wait until July to find out if she will run against Casey Cagle or Brian Kemp.

Democratic Party strategist Tharon Johnson told Elliot that Abrams has to use the time well.

“While she’s waiting for the Republicans to fight it out over the next nine weeks, she’s got to define herself.  She’s got to move a little bit more to the center,” Johnson said.

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Johnson believes the key to Abrams winning the general election will be not only to energize minorities to vote in numbers not seen since President Barack Obama’s first election, but he said she’s got to appeal to rural communities and suburban women.

“She’s got to basically have a massive turnout among the base, and she’s got to appeal to these suburban women, many of whom are disaffected. They don’t like what’s going on in Washington,” Johnson said.

The Abrams campaign is drawing national and international attention, much like Jon Ossoff's losing campaign against Republican Karen Handel in Georgia's 6th congressional district.

Like Ossoff’s campaign, Abrams is getting contributions from outside Georgia.

Kennesaw State political science professor Kerwin Swint said that attention and that money can help Abrams, but it can also hurt her.

“That national support is a double-edged sword. I mean, it really helps you get attention. It helps you raise money. But at the same time, it can be used against you, as it was with Jon Ossoff last year," Swint said.

As for the GOP side, the field has been whittled down to two candidates.

Casey Cagle handily beat second place finisher Brian Kemp in Tuesday's primary, but Kemp showed more strength than the polls indicated, getting 26 percent of the vote.

Swint told Elliot that Cagle and Kemp now have to appeal even more to the GOP base since turnout during runoffs is generally less than a primary.

“Job No. 1 is to get your own voters to come back out,” Swint said.

He believes Cagle will have advantages in name recognition, a statewide network and money, so he expects Kemp to continue his aggressive ad campaign.

“He’s going to attack Casey Cagle because he really has to, coming from behind like that.  So, it’s going to be a more aggressive, more attacking style campaign for Brian Kemp,” Swint said.

Former state lawmaker and current Georgia State University political scientist Doug Teper agrees both sides may have to get more aggressive to get the expected smaller voter turnout, but he cautions that while such a strategy could help in the short term, it could wind up hurting the nominee in the general election.

“They have to appeal to the ultimate Republican base,” Teper said. “It seems the tempting fate in ... modern American politics where it’s the scorched earth policy.  So, I think you will probably see them go after each other and there’s plenty of material they will use on each other.”

The GOP runoff between Cagle and Kemp is July 24.

The winner of that runoff will face Abrams in the November general election.

Cox Media Group