Atlanta metro area population expected to gain 2 million; Where are those people going?

ATLANTA — The Atlanta metro area is expected to have a big population boom over the next 30 years, according to new data forecasts from the Atlanta Regional Commission.

The ARC population forecast expects the area to have nearly eight million people by 2050, meaning almost two million more people will be living in the metro.

ARC puts out long-range population and employment forecasts every few years while planning updates to the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, which directs how investments are made in regional transport.

“ARC’s latest population and employment forecasts show that our region’s great quality of life and vibrant economy will drive strong growth in the decades ahead,” Anna Roach, ARC’s Executive Director & CEO, said. “But metro Atlanta’s continued prosperity is not a given. We must keep investing in our infrastructure and in our people to build a successful future.”

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According to ARC, the new forecast shows 1.8 million people coming to Atlanta over the next 30 years, reaching an overall regional population of 7.9 million people.

Economically, ARC said this will include adding 856,000 active jobs by 2050, for a total of 4.6 million positions.

The main takeaways from the population forecast were that the metro area population is going to get more diverse, there will be a larger portion of older Americans than in previous years, and growth will be strong but slower than in the last forecast from 2020.

While the core metro will see slightly slower growth, populations will increase faster on the metro area’s outer counties, according to ARC, while employment growth will be largely in professional and business services such as arts, entertainment, recreation, and food service and manufacturing.

In the more than 20 counties that ARC considers part of the Atlanta metro region, population increases are expected to go up between 15-79%, depending on area.

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The top five areas for expected growth by proportional increase are:

1. Forsyth County (79% growth to 450,124 by 2050)
2. Barrow County (71% growth to 142,904 by 2050)
3. Paulding County (60% growth to 270,096 by 2050)
4. Cherokee County (53% growth to 408,837 by 2050)
5. Coweta County (51% growth to 220,225 by 2050) tied with Walton County (51% growth to 145,977 by 2050)

Separately, the counties expected to have the largest populations by 2050 are:

1. Fulton County (1,321,079 by 2050)
2. Gwinnett County (1,200,534 by 2050)
3. Cobb County (914,448 by 2050)
4. DeKalb County (880,195 by 2050)
5. Forsyth County (450,124 by 2050)

Overall, the ARC population forecast expects the Atlanta regional population to increase to 7,934,422 people, for a 30% increase by 2050.

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Atlanta skyline The population of the 21-county Atlanta region will reach 7.9 million by 2050, an increase of 1.8 million over the 2020 U.S. Census baseline, according to population and employment forecasts released by the Atlanta Regional Commission. Click through to see how much your county is expected to grow by 2050.

With expected growth comes the question of where are they going to live, and not just what counties they’re expected to be in. While population forecasts can reach decades into the future, housing forecasts fluctuate more often, putting a guess as to where new residents may be able to find housing on a shorter timeline.

The most recently available housing data for the area shows prices in the Atlanta metro are starting to come down, according to a market report from Zillow.

In Atlanta, Zillow said 24% of homes saw prices drop in January, and inventory was up 0.7% compared to the year before.

New listings also increased by 48% from December to January and were up a full 17.3% from January 2023.

Homes are also selling faster, according to Zillow, with the company saying homes sold in about 33 days, though 22% higher than list price compared to previous checks.

“Some of the homes loitering on the market may just need the right buyer and digital curb appeal to cast a wider net, but many may be overpriced. There are slightly more homes for sale than this time last year, and there is still plenty of competition for well-priced houses,” Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen said. “Buyers should prep their credit scores and sellers should prep their properties now — attractive listings are going pending in less than a month, and time on market will shrink in the weeks ahead.”

Still, Zillow said affordability in the market is a major challenge. It’s made a deeper issue as mortgage rates remain in flux nationally. The most recent rate check by federally-backed mortgage company Freddie Mac, rates were 6.77% for a 30-year-fixed rate mortgage as of Feb. 15.

The company said mortgage applications year-to-date for 2024 were down in more than half of the country compared to the level in 2023.

“On the heels of consumer prices rising more than expected, mortgage rates increased this week,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, said. “The economy has been performing well so far this year and rates may stay higher for longer, potentially slowing the spring homebuying season. According to our data, mortgage applications to buy a home so far in 2024 are down in more than half of all states compared to a year earlier.”

Separately, real estate company Redfin reported Atlanta home prices were up 6.5% since last year.

The data on mortgages and applications follows the most recent national inflation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed the biggest driver of inflation in the country remains the cost of shelter, or housing.

“The shelter index increased 6.0 percent over the last year, accounting for over two-thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index,” the BLS reported Tuesday.

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