Could AI better predict a successful heart transplant? Emory researchers believe so with new study

DEKALB COUNTY, Ga. — Could AI better predict a successful heart transplant? Emory researchers believe so and have a study to back it up.

For nearly 22 years, Tina Marsden has had a constant companion by her side keeping her alive.

“This is connected to me 24/7. Showers, sleeping, you name it,” Marsden said.

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The object is an LVAD.

A heart pump, keeping her alive ever since her heart started to fail nearly 22 years ago.

“I was diagnosed with pregnancy-induced heart failure,” Marsden said.

The problem is not one that just goes away. She’s had to manage the problem for most of her adult life. She’s managed it well, carrying out her day-to-day life with minimal disruptions.

She has also experienced more health challenges, from being diagnosed with cancer to going into cardiac arrest back in 2016. She says without her heart pump, she would not have survived.

One thing she has never tried was a heart transplant.

And throughout those 22 years, she’s had the option to get a transplant but has held off.

“There is a lot that comes with getting a transplant. It’s not like you get a transplant, and everything is okay. You have to worry about rejection. You have to worry about infection,” Marsden said. “Once you take my heart out, there is no going back.”

According to Emory University, up to 32 percent of younger patients see their heart rejected in the first year (the odds of rejection get lower as a person ages, as a general rule).

“We want to try to avoid that, mitigate that, minimize that,” Anant Madabhushi at Emory University said.

Madabhushi says AI can help lower that number.

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He says currently, doctors look at photos of biopsies to determine the likelihood of a heart rejection. This is based on guidelines that have been set for years. However, Madabhushi says that interpretation can vary from doctor to doctor.

The AI system developed with help from Emory can take those same photos and compare them to a database of past transplants.

“AI is independent of the eyes of the beholder,” Madabhushi said.

The study found AI was at least 10 percent better at predicting the future success of a transplant and was better at providing earlier warning signs of rejection.

“Just the smallest percentage of that can mean a lot because it means peace of mind,” Mardsen said.

Madsen says she’s not planning on trying for a transplant. However, with every improvement it makes the odds of a future procedure go up.

She hopes one day, the predictive behavior will be good enough (or a heart pump like hers can be made internal) will allow her to live a normal life.

“In a perfect world, I would have recovery, and I would be walking around free, able to jump in a pool, jump in a tub, and be able to slide on a dress without getting it altered,” Mardsen said.

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