No one could blame Dabo Swinney if he is wearing a bit of a knowing smirk this week.
His Clemson Tigers will visit Florida State on Saturday in a game that was once expected to be not just a marquee matchup in the ACC, but also a litmus test on how to run a program in the modern era.
The marquee part is gone — FSU is 1-4 and starting a backup quarterback.
The litmus part is still there though. These are two programs with different philosophies that are potentially headed in different directions — it’s just not the directions that most would have believed coming into the season.
Clemson is 3-1 and ranked 12th in the country, dusting itself off and looking great after an opening week blowout loss to Georgia. That result sparked a chorus of criticism over Dabo's distaste for using the transfer portal to bolster the roster.
Florida State, meanwhile, has had a disastrous start to a season where it was supposed to ride the momentum of last year’s 13-0 regular season campaign. A year ago the transfer portal delivered big for coach Mike Norvell. This time it’s been a bust, leaving the program reeling and top recruits fleeing their verbal commitments.
Does that reversal justify Swinney’s decision to stick with homegrown talent? (The only other programs that didn’t take a transfer last offseason were Army, Navy and Air Force.)
Maybe. Or maybe not, especially at the national championship level where the Tigers once operated. It does suggest that if his approach can’t produce a championship-level ceiling, it does offer a high floor. Dabo’s worst season was a year ago when the Tigers went 9-4. That seems pretty appealing right now if you are in Tallahassee.
“I think, certainly, everybody's surprised of where their record is, [but] you also have to give the other teams some credit,” Swinney said. “They've played good teams, you know?”
The Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Memphis and SMU. They did defeat Cal by five. This isn’t what anyone could have imagined. Now they host a hot Clemson team without their starting QB, D.J. Uiagalelei, the one-time Clemson starter who Norvell brought in as a transfer from Oregon State. The job will fall to Brock Glenn.
"Football's hard,” Swinney said. “It's a hard game. Y'all have heard me talk about it a lot — a few plays here or there can really affect the psyche of a team, the confidence of a team. A couple plays go your way, and the next thing you know, it's different.
“These kids today are growing up with a lot of noise, a lot of pressure — more than at any time ever in football history, when it comes to scrutiny and expectations and criticism and just straight-up negativity,” he continued. “And that's hard.”
Swinney isn’t wrong, but that also amplifies the stakes on Saturday.
The perception of a program, both internally and externally, seemingly matters more now than ever. In the era of the transfer portal, any player who loses faith in the direction of where things are headed can find a convenient out. It can also tighten the wallets of boosters who are needed to fund NIL collectives.
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Meanwhile, Norvell has to combat any perception that this is more than a blip on the radar to prospective players — both potential transfers and traditional high school recruits. Everything is sped up these days. Everything is on a razor’s edge.
Saturday can be a nationally-televised chance for Florida State to change the narrative and offer a shot of optimism. Or it can be an opportunity for Clemson to put its foot on its rival’s neck and whoop it up at Doak Campbell. It would get them to 4-1 but also give Dabo more justification for what he’s selling — loyalty to his recruits by not bringing in replacement talent.
Norvell would love to do it the Clemson way — or something close. Every coach would. Developing players over the years, building a long-term culture and relying on veterans and experience is a proven blueprint. The portal was supposed to offer a bridge to the Seminoles until their high school recruiting work restocked the roster.
A perfect regular season — despite the playoff snub — was expected to pay off. Florida State has always been a desirable and exciting place to play college football. It’s even better when it’s winning and it was winning. Add in uncertainty and struggles at instate rival Florida, and they should have been able to scoop up more than their share of Sunshine State talent.
Instead that seems to have all evaporated in a little over a month. Three four-star recruits (two from Florida, one from South Carolina) have de-committed in the last month alone. FSU's current recruiting class has just 11 players and ranks 39th in the country per Rivals.com.
There’s still plenty of time until signing day, but, again, this is not what anyone expected.
The worse the high school recruiting is, the more the transfer portal is needed. It can pay off, but it’s a roll of the dice, as FSU knows all too well from the last couple of years.
Clemson, meanwhile, wants to prove it's back and getting better, maybe even enough to make that Georgia loss just a bad day at the office. After six consecutive playoff appearances, it hasn’t qualified for the last four. In the 12-team era though, it has plenty of paths to get back.
Saturday could be another step in that direction. And another step in a different direction, one inconceivable recently, for the Seminoles.
