Fantasy Football: The most overrated draft picks in Rounds 1-10

In fantasy football drafts, knowing who to dodge is just as crucial as picking the right stars. A couple of bad calls can throw your whole season off track. Here's my list of players I'm steering clear of based on their current Yahoo ADP in a 10-team league.

Round 1: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson poses a legitimate threat to JT's ceiling, hijacking opportunities near the goal line à la Jalen Hurts with any running back. The health concerns are real, too. Taylor is coming off two injury-plagued seasons where he's missed an average of 6.5 games.

As one of the best pure runners in the game, I'm not saying he won't be a beast — I'm saying the price is too high when considering he's playing with a mobile QB, has a modest career target rate (14.6%) and a recent history of missing games.

Round 2: Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

A great receiver wasting what's left of his prime with a lower-tiered bridge QB in Gardner Minshew shouldn't be drafted in the second round. The Raiders are pacing to be a run-first offense and when looking at Adams' numbers from last season, suspect QB play lessens his value. Having former Packers assistant Luke Getsy calling the plays should be a good look, knowing he'll still command tons of targets, especially in the red zone. This early in drafts, I'd target a running back or a receiver who offers more upside.

Round 3: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Remember, being overvalued is the name of the game. When you look at the Chiefs' decision to load up on wide receivers this offseason, it's a strong indication that KC's planning to be less dependent on their soon-to-be 35-year-old future first-ballot Hall Of Famer.

Per PFF, Kelce was the still ranked second among all TEs with an 83.6 receiving grade last year, and he still has the potential to finish among the best TEs. It's more about the cost. You're better off taking players with higher ceilings like Drake London, Devon Achane and Deebo Samuel Sr. or starting the run on elite dual-threat QBs.

Round 4: Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White was a league-winning asset last season because of his sky-high volume and dominance over the Bucs backfield. Though he was peppered with targets and graded out as a plus-receiving back, he was one of the least efficient rushers in football. The Bucs' offensive line remains questionable, and Tampa also brought in former Rams OC Liam Coen to make call plays. The Rams targeted backs at a bottom-five rate last year, so that can't be good for White's fantasy value.

Don't be surprised if fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving takes some of his shine. Instead of paying up for White, go the Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, DK Metcalf types. Or, if you're chasing running backs, consider names like James Cook, Joe Mixon or even Kenneth Walker III. It's worth noting that, if available, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are also far better options.

Round 5: Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans

Landing the projected third wheel in an ascending offense is cool, but wouldn't you prefer to invest in WR1 or WR2 with a path to WR1 numbers? That's Michael Pittman Jr. and DeVonta Smith. Given the options available in this round, this is a perfect opportunity to scoop a high-end TE or mobile QB like Anthony Richardson or Kyler Murray over an aging Diggs.

In the fifth round of fantasy football drafts, Diggs is a market inefficiency that you should avoid despite his history as a top wideout. Call it battle scars from consecutive years of giving fantasy managers nothing in the back half of the season, but it's more likely he's trending down in his early 30s.

Round 6: Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

The talent is undeniable. I want to see this exciting rookie smash his ADP. However, I'm struggling to see how Nabers exceeds expectations with Daniel Jones throwing him the ball. No wide receiver has topped 800 receiving yards since Jones has been quarterbacking the New York Giants. It's been half a decade since a receiver accomplished that feat, with Odell Beckham Jr. having been the last one to do it back in 2018.

Nabers and Dalton Kincaid offer the most skill position upside within this round of vets (Aaron Jones, George Kittle, David Montgomery, Amari Cooper). Still, all those options have a proven history of sustained fantasy success, or their QB isn't objectively a receiver killer. I like Nabers, but don't let Jones send your fantasy team to the Gulag.

Round 7: Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

The 31-year-old breakout scored 21 touchdowns last season. Before this insane anomaly, the most tuddies Mostert had in a season was 10 in 2019. He is entering his 10th season in the league, and while the tread on his tires is less extensive than his age might suggest, DeVon Achane is a significant threat to his workload.

Mostert was a league-winner in 2023 because of his 10th-round ADP. Now that he's moved up three rounds, it's too rich. If he's depth on your roster, fine, but don't be the guy waiting in the dead zone to get him as an RB1. Give me Rhamondre Stevenson or the plethora of wideouts around here like George Pickens, Zay Flowers and Tee Higgins.

Round 8: Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears

I don't hate his ADP, but like Stefon Diggs, Allen is competing for targets with two receivers threatening his once-perceived high floor. Allen ate up 39% of the wide receiver targets with the Chargers last season, so it's highly doubtful he can reach 150+ targets with that target share in Chicago.

Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams seems to be keying in on Rome Odunze on every improvised play, and when factoring in DJ Moore put up 1,300+ yards with Justin Fields at QB, this is about as crowded as it can get for a 32-year-old WR. Allen will have his moments, but this is likely the year we'll see the drop-off in his production, so shoot for more upside or address another need.

Round 9: Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Until LT Trent Williams signs a new deal, Purdy is overvalued in fantasy drafts. Williams is the actual security blanket of this offense, as he protects Purdy's blindside and wreaks havoc on defenses as one of the best run and pass blockers in the NFL.

The Niners have gone 3-6 without Williams since 2020 and have scored nearly five fewer points per game when he's off the field. Purdy's drop-off without Williams is significant, too.

Metric

Brock Purdy with Trent Williams

Brock Purdy without Trent Williams

Yards per game

228.0

212.3

Touchdown rate (%)

7.6

3.3

QB rating

114.0

87.9

Interception rate (%)

2.0

6.6

TD:INT ratio

42:11

2:4

Purdy was the QB6 last season, with Williams missing just two games, so it's something to consider if Williams' holdout bleeds into the regular season. Pass-catchers like Rashee Rice, Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson and Chris Godwin are going in this round and are far more reasonable values.

Round 10: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

Chubb (understandably) landed on the PUP list after needing additional time to recover from a nasty knee injury he suffered in Week 2 of last year, meaning he'll miss at least the first four weeks of the season. I'm not betting against his comeback, but the fact that you can grab Jerome Ford rounds later is odd, considering he's getting essentially four games as the lead back.

Chubb is amazing when healthy, but drafting him here won't help you win now. Every week matters, so don't put yourself in an early hole spending a late-rounder on a guy who won't play for at least four weeks.