As the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback debate trends toward its (at least temporary) resolution, head coach Mike Tomlin has signaled his preference.
The debate between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields is not a debate between players with identical skill sets of varying proficiency.
Rather, with both quarterbacks healthy for the first time this regular season, the Steelers are deciding whether they want to proceed with a 13-year veteran whose arm talent powered nine Pro Bowl berths or a younger, more highly drafted choice with a less-developed arm but more threat in his legs.
The decision between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields would not draw unanimous response from league decision-makers.
Coaches and executives prefer different quarterback styles, some always riding one philosophy over the rest while others decide what best fits the specific roster around him. Some coaches and executives would factor heavily the momentum of a 4-2 Pittsburgh team; others would lean more heavily on the track record of their contenders.
As Tomlin announced this week that Wilson had proven his health and was "in consideration" to start Sunday night against the New York Jets, the 18-year head coach indicated the Steelers' winning record does not guarantee Fields the job Tomlin had previously awarded Wilson.
“Justin has been really good, and we’ve been really good at times — but not to be confused with great,” Tomlin said Tuesday. “This is a competitive league, man. We’re trying to position ourselves to be that team and we got a player with talent who hasn’t had an opportunity to play.”
Wilson doesn’t just have any talent. He has an arm talent that Fields has not demonstrated and an arm talent that Tomlin’s recent comments suggest he strongly desires.
“So we’re going to potentially explore those things,” Tomlin said.
The clues were there.
As Tomlin noted his opponent’s ‘much more proficient passer,’ perhaps he meant more
Tomlin’s reputation for eking out a few more wins than his roster’s seeming expectation in recent years stems from more than just the coach’s demonstrated ability to galvanize his players.
Tomlin also works to maximize strategic advantages for each game plan. The Steelers’ 12 top-10 scoring offenses in his 18 years reflect his success.
Tomlin is acutely aware of how the quarterbacks his team beat during their four wins compare to those against whom they lost two games.
The Steelers beat the Atlanta Falcons in Kirk Cousins’ first game with a new franchise and his first post-Achilles surgery at 36 years old, then the Denver Broncos in rookie Bo Nix’s second-ever pro game.
They beat Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert coming off a training camp-sidelining plantar fascia injury and surrounded by a depleted cast, and they beat the Las Vegas Raiders in the team’s first week switching from quarterback Gardner Minshew to Aidan O’Connell this season.
The losses: to an Indianapolis Colts team primarily quarterbacked by Joe Flacco and a Dallas Cowboys team quarterbacked by Dak Prescott.
Tomlin went out of his way to praise each.
“(Joe) Flacco’s the much more proficient passer than (Anthony) Richardson, so blitzing doesn’t really help you,” he said after a 27-24 loss to the Colts. “A veteran guy. Makes quick and prudent decisions.”
The next week, two days after Prescott scored the game-winning touchdown on fourth-and-4 with 20 seconds to play, Tomlin praised the “quality playmaking, throws and catches,” pointing out Prescott’s “awesome look off and really good throw” on third-and-5.
“That just speaks to the talents of Dak Prescott,” Tomlin said. “I certainly want to be reflective and own our component of circumstances. But I’m doing a disservice to the game sometimes if you don’t acknowledge the quality skill set and the talent of those that you compete against.”
As the Jets arrive with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers this weekend, Tomlin spoke to a similar concern.
“To be quite honest with you, we're playing an Aaron Rodgers-led group on offense and that means certain things,” Tomlin said. “When you got a quarterback who's had the resumé that he has and has had the type of success that he's had, it's a challenge regardless of who the eligibles are.
“You better carry enough defense, you better have enough types of defense, you better pressure him, you better play man, you better play zone, you better bogus pressure him. You better tie it all together with good pre-snap looks. You better make him read things out post-snap.
“That's what you do when you play a guy of his caliber.”
Tomlin respects the challenge of game-planning for and playing against a quarterback with dangerous arm talent. And now, it seems, he wants to field his own.
What data will and won’t tell Tomlin
Starting six games for Pittsburgh this season, Fields has completed 66.3% of pass attempts for five touchdowns, one interception and 184.3 passing yards per game.
Fields has rushed for 231 yards and five touchdowns, picking up 17 first-downs with the legs that Tomlin acknowledged are an "X-factor" Wilson does not offer.
But the last two weeks, Fields has completed 55.6 and 58.3% of passes, respectively. He’s thrown for under 150 yards each time.
"I don't think I played good enough, if I'm being real with you," Fields told reporters on Thursday. "If I'm being real with myself, if I did play well enough, I don't think there would be any sort of [question] who should be playing, who should not."
Over the course of a 17-game average season, Wilson has averaged 232.2 yards per game in his career including 219.8 during his last two years in Denver, per Pro Football Reference. He's averaged 30 touchdowns to 10 interceptions per 17-game season compared to Fields' 17:11 ratio.
From 2016 to 2021, Wilson led the league with 65 deep touchdowns, also throwing for the most touchdowns (40) and second-most yards (2,910) on tight-window passes, per Next Gen Stats. His production dipped in the tumultuous Denver years but still was competitive, his 12 deep touchdowns ninth across the two seasons while his tight-window 595 yards and seven touchdowns ranked 11th with the Broncos.
Tomlin could factor any of these data sets into a decision for which, as he said, “the variables are endless.”
But the head coach also doesn’t seem stuck on data, especially the data that his team has produced this year.
“Stats are often for losers,” he said. “It’s comfort food when you’re trying to take an L. I just try to focus my energies on positioning this group to win and doing what's appropriate to try to put the best collective together this week and win this game.”
Tomlin’s words and actions seem to point to one quarterback clearly, and they seem to voice a major reason, if not the only one, for that decision.
Tomlin respects quarterbacks who can beat his near-perennially top-10 defense with their arm.
He knows his team is set to face Rodgers, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson (twice), Joe Burrow (twice), Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes before the regular season ends.
With gun-slinging firepower to defend against, Tomlin wants gun-slinging firepower for his offense.
Wilson’s resumé allures the coach too deeply to not at least warrant a tryout.
So Tomlin seems ready to gauge all arm talent in his building long before the playoffs when he hopes to need it.
“Sometimes it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with what Justin has done or has not done…” Tomlin said. “You better look to divide the labor up in the most appropriate way based on who's available to you and healthy and that's just simply what we're going to do.
“You better have your foot on the gas at all times.”