2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be among most active on record, experts say

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season could be a record-setter, according to forecasters as a report released in April calls for 23 named storms to form this year.

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“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project said in a 44-page report.

According to the report, activity in the 2024 season will rise considerably above the 1991-2020 average, with researchers predicting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days.

Named storm days count all tropical cyclones with winds of at least 39 mph. Previous years had an average of 14.4 storm days and 69.4 named storm days, the report noted.

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Forecasters pointed to a combination of intensified La Niña conditions – a phenomenon that causes decreased vertical wind shear that aids in hurricane formation – and warmer than usual sea surface temperatures as the reason they are predicting such a jump in the projected number of tropical systems.

The La Niña effect is expected to intensify in late summer, the most active time for hurricane formation.

The report said there is a 62% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline. In an average year, the prediction of such a strike is 43%.

Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes are considered “major” hurricanes by the National Hurricane Center.

A Category 3 hurricane has sustained winds of between 111-129 mph; a Category 4 has sustained winds of 130-156 mph; and a Category 5 storm produces winds of more than 157 mph.

Researchers say that along the East Coast, the probability of a landfalling hurricane is 34%.

The report says there is a 42% chance of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. In average years, there is a 27% chance of a strike.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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